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中国稀土市场周报(09月14日-09月18日)

2020/9/24 14:32:57?????点击:

一、挂牌价

1、南方稀土集团挂牌价

表一 中国南方稀土2020年中重稀土氧化物挂牌价

数据来源:南方稀土

2、北方稀土集团挂牌价

表二 中国北方稀土高科技术股份有限公司每月挂牌价格

数据来源:北方稀土

二、稀土市场分析

1、中国稀土市场评述

本周稀土市场主流产品价格稳中偏弱震荡,镨钕阴跌;镝铽降中有稳,低价货源有所减少。下游整体询盘活跃度较低,谨慎观望为主,逢低刚需采购,整体成交量未及预期。

This week, the prices of mainstream products in the rare earth market were stable but weak and fluctuating, praseodymium and neodymium cathode fell; dysprosium and terbium were stable while falling, and low-priced sources of goods decreased. The overall downstream enquiry activity is relatively low, mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and just need to purchase on dips, the overall transaction volume is less than expected.

2、市场报价

表三 2020年9月14日-9月18日主流稀土产品报价(万元/吨)

数据来源:我的有色

3、市场成交

表四 2020年9月14日-9月18日主流稀土产品成交情况

数据来源:我的有色

三、市场分析

轻稀土方面:

本周稀土市场镨钕延续上周降中有稳态势,延续小幅回调,近两周氧化镨钕现货成交回调走势和主要价格节点为:33.8-33.5-33.3-33.0万元/吨,截至本周五金属厂补库需求整体谨慎,按需采购为主,主要对锁低位期货,近两周镨钕金属账期不含承兑价格节点为:44.0-43.5-43.0-42.5万元/吨,截至本周五短期交付和十月底十一月初锁价交易有所增加,成交集中在42-42.5万元/吨月结不含承兑。近两周主要现款市场以及中间商成交节点为:43.0-42.5-42.0-41.5万元/吨,截至本周五成交区间为:41.2-41.5万元/吨。从主要镨钕回调幅度和区间来看,近两周价格回调程度为1-1.5万元/吨,回调至8月10号附近中旬上阶段涨势以及集中补库价位,下周临近国庆节前,将是镨钕价格走势的重要转折点,库存偏少企业补货情绪随价格降中有稳调整走势增加,上游库存依然在短中长期不同程度转移至下游,在现货整体偏紧支撑下,价格下调试探性特点较强,价格走势同时影响整体市场后续备货情绪,目前镨钕金属的成交主要补充十月中下旬以及十一月初库存消耗。综合看来,价格回调至前期集中补库价位,修复市场对后市价格起底反弹以及继续回调预期幅度,推向节前最后一周交易日,增加市场成交活力,从整体上下游库存情况看来,预计下周成交量会有所增加,若有反弹,短期涨幅或随需求集中度有限,反弹趋势更多企稳中期价格走势。

This week, the rare earth market continued its steady decline and continued a slight correction. In the past two weeks, the spot transaction of praseodymium oxide and the main price nodes are: 33.8-33.5-33.3-33.0 million yuan/ton, as of this week The demand for replenishment of the five metal plants is generally cautious, and mainly purchases on demand. It mainly locks low-level futures. In the past two weeks, the price node of praseodymium and neodymium metal accounts without acceptance is: 44.0-43.5-43.0-42.5 million yuan/ton, as of this Friday Short-term delivery and price lock-up transactions at the end of October and beginning of November increased, and transactions were concentrated at RMB 42.42 million per ton, excluding acceptance. The main cash market and intermediary transaction nodes in the past two weeks are: 43.0-42.5-42.0-41.5 million yuan/ton, as of this Friday, the transaction range is: 412-241.5 million yuan/ton. Judging from the magnitude and range of the main praseodymium and neodymium callbacks, the price callbacks in the past two weeks have been between 10,000 and 15,000 yuan/ton, and they have been adjusted to the mid-to-early stage of the increase around August 10 and the centralized replenishment price. Next week is approaching before the National Day. , Will be an important turning point in the price trend of praseodymium and neodymium. The replenishment sentiment of enterprises with insufficient inventory has increased steadily along with the decline in prices. The upstream inventory will still be transferred to the downstream to varying degrees in the short, medium and long term. The downward adjustment and exploratory characteristics are strong, and the price trend also affects the overall market follow-up stocking sentiment. The current transactions of neodymium praseodymium mainly supplement inventory consumption in mid-to-late October and early November. On the whole, the price has adjusted back to the centralized replenishment price in the early stage, repairing the market’s rebound in the market outlook and continuing to adjust the expected range, pushing it to the last trading day before the holiday, and increasing the vitality of market transactions. From the overall upstream and downstream inventory situation, It is expected that the trading volume will increase next week. If there is a rebound, the short-term increase may be limited with the concentration of demand, and the rebound trend will more stabilize the medium-term price trend.

中重稀土方面:

本周中重稀土主要产品整体报价弱稳震荡,分离企业报价仍显坚挺,实际出货犹豫,惜售观望居多,持货商少量货源报货为主,整体成交较少。分离厂整体主动报价较少,冶炼厂长协客户实单寻货采购再报价出货,部分持货商少量货源试探性让利变现。截至本周五,氧化镝现款成交区间168-170万元/吨,169及以上金属厂采购承压,165-167部分持货商低价寻货,金属厂镝铁报价对应小幅下调至167-169万元/吨,成交166-168万元/吨;氧化铽分离厂报价485万元/吨坚挺,持货惜售,中间商含税报价482-483万元/吨集中,成交482-485万元/吨,485极个别集团成交,金属级个别480万元/吨成交,市场整体成交较少,金属厂逢低刚需对锁采购,金属铽报价对应小幅下调,极个别金属厂现款报价615万元/吨左右,成交未及预期;氧化钆周五市场询盘活跃度有所增加,持货商、厂家报价犹豫,氧化钆17.3-17.5万元/吨成交,17.6及以上成交承压,低价173及以内货源减少,钆铁(一次)现款对应成交17.4-17.6万元/吨,磁材询盘较少;氧化钬持货商、分离厂报价42.0-42.5万元/吨,成交集中42.0-42.2万元/吨,42.0以内部分金属厂寻货,金属厂钬铁期货交付,报价偏弱,整体成交较少。

The overall quotations of the main products of China's heavy rare earths were weak and fluctuating this week, and the quotations of separate companies were still strong. Actual shipments were hesitant, and most of them were reluctant to sell. As a whole, the separation plant has fewer active quotations, and the smelter director cooperates with customers to find goods and then quotes for shipments. Some holders tentatively realize profits from a small amount of supply. As of this Friday, the transaction range of dysprosium oxide cash was 1.68-1.7 million yuan/ton, and the purchase of metal factories of 169 and above was under pressure. Some holders of 165-167 were looking for goods at low prices. The quotation of dysprosium iron by metal factories was slightly reduced to 167- 1.69 million yuan/ton, the transaction was 1.66-16.8 million yuan/ton; the terbium oxide separation plant's price was 4.85 million yuan/ton, and the holdings were reluctant to sell. RMB/ton, 485 very few group transactions, metal-grade individual transactions of 4.8 million yuan/ton, the overall market transaction is less, metal factories just need to purchase locks on bargaining prices, metal terbium quotations correspondingly decreased slightly, very few metal factories cash quotations of 6.15 million The transaction was less than expected; the market inquiries for gadolinium oxide increased on Friday, and holders and manufacturers hesitated in quotations. The transaction of gadolinium oxide was 173-175 million yuan/ton, and transactions of 17.6 and above were under pressure and low The supply of goods within the price of 173 and less decreased. The gadolinium iron (one-time) cash transaction corresponds to 1744-1176 million yuan/ton, and there are fewer inquiries for magnetic materials. The holmium oxide holders and separation plants quoted 42-42.5 million yuan/ton, and the transaction was concentrated 42.0 -422,000 yuan/ton, some metal factories searched for goods within 42.0, and the metal factory holmium iron futures were delivered. The quotation was weak and the overall transaction was relatively small.

市场总结:

我的有色网认为:轻稀土镨钕氧化物、金属上游报价犹豫,下游谨慎刚需采购,买涨不买跌市场规律,持货商少量货源变现,市场暂缺利好支撑信心较弱,持续观望中镨钕价格阴跌走势。下周金属厂、磁材节前补货预期,成交量或有所增加,镨钕价格仍有下探可能但上游大厂报价坚挺情况下,空间或有限,探底过程走稳可能性变大;中重稀土上游厂家报价坚挺惜售,出货意愿较低,持货商少量货源对锁成交,但低价货源整体有所减少,氧化物价格趋于平稳,氧化钆成交重心略有上移,预计中重稀土短期以稳为主,若上游部分资金投入,个别品种或将区间偏强震荡。

The upstream quotations of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxides and metals are hesitant, and the downstream is cautious about purchasing. The market rules for buying up and not buying down. Holders realize a small amount of supply. The market lacks good support and confidence is weak. Continue to wait and see the price of praseodymium and neodymium declines. . Next week, metal factories and magnetic materials are expected to replenish goods before the festival, and the transaction volume may increase. The price of neodymium may still fall. However, with the strong quotes of major upstream manufacturers, the space may be limited, and the bottoming process may become more stable. ; The upstream manufacturers of China Heavy Rare Earth are reluctant to sell, and the willingness to ship is low. Holders have a small amount of supply to lock the transaction, but the low-priced supply has decreased overall, the oxide price has stabilized, and the center of gadolinium oxide transaction has slightly moved up. It is expected that the medium and heavy rare earths will mainly be stable in the short term. If some funds are invested in the upstream, individual varieties may fluctuate strongly.

来源:我的有色网

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